The premise is simple: instead of assigning states Electoral College votes based on population, we grant votes based on sports prowess. How many pro sports franchises does the state have? What about well-known college teams? How successful have they been? While unscientific, these criteria place every state and DC in one of the 10 buckets below, each of which connote a given number of Electoral College votes.

Then, having rejiggered the American electoral process, how would the 2024 election change? As it turns out, it would still be tight–and the Big Seven swing states would matter even more than before. 

The Buckets: Ranking States and Revamping the Electoral College

Nothing to See Here – 1 Electoral College vote

51. Alaska

50. Vermont

49. New Hampshire

48. Maine

47. Rhode Island

I guess it’s extreme to say there’s “nothing” to see, since there are college teams like the Rhode Island Rams, New Hampshire Wildcats, and Dartmouth Big Green. But the New England states in this group add little athletic excitement–they feed off of the Boston sports market for their professional sports needs–and Alaska weighs the tier down even further.

Something… But Still Sorely Lacking – 3 Electoral College votes

46. Hawaii

45. Montana

44. Delaware

43. New Mexico

42. South Dakota

41. North Dakota

40. Wyoming

These seven get three votes apiece, but let’s not overreact–we’re still not in sports havens as we hopscotch the country in this tier. The University of Hawaii has a popular college football team, but its home state has little else going for it sports-wise. Montana, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Wyoming collectively gave us NFLers Carson Wentz, Josh Allen, Trey Lance, and Dallas Goedert, but their contributions mostly end there. Then we have Delaware and New Mexico, which probably aren’t sports-relevant enough to deserve a separate sentence in this paragraph.

Signs of Life – 5 Electoral College votes

39. Idaho

38. Nebraska

37. West Virginia

36. Arkansas

We’re getting hotter, thankfully. These states have no pro sports teams, but they offer rich college athletic traditions, from Boise State (undefeated seasons in football in 2006 and 2009) to Morgantown, West Virginia. Nebraska football ruled the 1990s–the state would move up a tier if its flagship university could point to success in the past decade–and the University of Arkansas is a big-time player in football, men’s basketball, and softball.

The Bottom of the Pro Sports States – 8 Electoral College votes

35. Nevada

34. Utah

33. Oregon

32. Oklahoma

Finally! We have pro franchises to discuss: the Las Vegas Raiders, Utah Jazz, Portland Trail Blazers, and Oklahoma City Thunder. Alas, those four have combined to win zero championships since 1985. Even top-notch college football programs at Oregon and Oklahoma can’t Febreze that title-less stench.

Thank God for the NCAA – 9 Electoral College votes

31. Mississippi

30. Kansas

29. Iowa

28. Kentucky

27. South Carolina

26. Virginia

25. Connecticut

24. Alabama

Again we find ourselves amongst states lacking a pro sports franchise–but each entry in this tier has at least one college powerhouse pushing it up the rankings. Some notable heavy hitters: Connecticut has UConn basketball, with men’s and women’s teams that have dominated the 21st century, while Nick Saban’s Alabama football dynasty and Tony Bennett’s reign atop Virginia basketball push those states near the top of this group.

Heating Up – 13 Electoral College votes

23. New Jersey

22. Tennessee

21. Maryland

20. Washington

19. Arizona

18. Colorado

17. Missouri

Now we’re talking. This group boasts Tennessee basketball, Washington football, and a bevy of professional franchises, from the Suns, Grizzlies, and Nuggets in the NBA to the Ravens, Seahawks, and Titans in the NFL. Top billing in the tier goes to Missouri, home of the Kansas City Chiefs and the St. Louis Cardinals.

High-Level Performers – 15 Electoral College votes

16. Indiana

15. DC

14. Minnesota

13. Florida

The line between this and the previous tier is thin, but each of these states (and DC) has something that sets it apart. For Indiana, it’s a storied basketball tradition, represented by Indiana University, Purdue, and Butler, plus the Pacers in the NBA. DC has a team in each of the four major sports and recent championships from the Nationals and Capitals. Minnesota likewise covers all four major sports and has the four-time WNBA champion Lynx. And Florida’s raw size means it has loads of teams but also a good deal of success, from the Florida Gators and Florida State Seminoles (both have won 21st-century college football championships) to the Tampa Bay Lightning (back-to-back Stanley Cup winners in 2020 and 2021).

Buoyed by College Blue Bloods – 17 Electoral College votes

12. Georgia

11. North Carolina

10. Louisiana

Yes, there are professional franchises in this group–the NFL’s Falcons, Saints, and Panthers, and the Braves in MLB, for example. Some of those teams have even won titles this century, like the Braves in 2021 and the Saints in 2010. But this three-state tier is set apart with 17 votes because it houses some of college sports’ blue-bloodiest programs, like Georgia and LSU in football and UNC and Duke in basketball. 

Big Ten Power Players – 19 Electoral College votes

9. Ohio

8. Michigan

7. Wisconsin

6. Illinois

The “blue wall” states that still give Hillary Clinton nightmares, these are sports bastions with successful pro and college teams. It’s not just the Cubs and Blackhawks in Chicago and Bucks and Brewers in Milwaukee; it’s the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry in college football, Marquette basketball, and the Green Bay Packers, the NFL’s winningest franchise. 

The Heavyweights – 22 Electoral College votes

5. New York

4. Pennsylvania

3. Massachusetts

2. California

1. Texas

The best of the best, these states are prolific due to a combination of raw geographic size (Massachusetts notwithstanding) and consistent excellence. New York is New York: there might not be much past-decade success to bank on, but the Yankees have 27 titles and the Bills and Knicks are good again. Pennsylvania has fewer pro sports franchises than its Empire State neighbor but a winning track record, from the Eagles (2018 Super Bowl champions) to the Penguins (2016 and 2017 Stanley Cup winners). Massachusetts is similar, with high-quality output from the Celtics, Bruins, Red Sox, and Patriots. Finally, California and Texas, two massive states with a combined 22 franchises in the four major sports. Texas wins the tie-breaker because its sports resume–the Astros’ recent MLB dominance, San Antonio’s early-2000s NBA dynasty, and college basketball relevance (Baylor and Houston)–edges out California’s, which features the Warriors’ four Curry era championships and the Rams’ 2022 Super Bowl. 

How the Electoral College Changed

This new, more balanced Electoral College is a disaster for geographic behemoths like California, Texas, and Florida. Here are the states that lost the most votes:

State	Votes (old)	Votes (new)	Change
California	54	22	-32
Texas	40	22	-18
Florida	30	15	-15
New York	28	22	-6
Virginia	13	9	-4

Meanwhile, tiny sports powerhouses (and one key swing state) were the big winners. Here are the states that gained the most votes from our electoral experiment:

State	Votes (old)	Votes (new)	Change
DC	3	15	+12
Massachusetts	11	22	+11
Louisiana	8	17	+9
Wisconsin	10	19	+9
Minnesota	10	15	+5

Despite some Democratic standouts like DC, Massachusetts, and Minnesota, blue states lost an average of one vote, while Republican states barely changed in terms of their Electoral College representation. Meanwhile, swing states (detailed below) gained 3.14 votes on average.

Swing state	Votes (old)	Votes (new)	Change
Wisconsin	10	19	+9
Michigan	15	19	+4
Pennsylvania	19	22	+3
Nevada	6	8	+2
Arizona	11	13	+2
Georgia	16	17	+1
North Carolina	16	17	+1

What It Means for the 2024 Election

The tables above carry a couple of implications. First, if either party is advantaged by our sports-reformed Electoral College, it’s Republicans, since Democrat states were more likely to lose votes. Second, swing states, which gained a total of 22 votes, become even more pivotal–and the election gets even tighter. 

In conclusion, some scenarios. With the Big Seven undecided, our reformed Electoral College starts at Republicans 217, Democrats 206. Here are three potential outcomes based on that starting point.

1. Biden overperforms | Democrats 279, Republicans 259

Recent polling suggests Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are Biden’s best swing states, so we’ll assume he rallies to win those. Tack on an airtight victory in Arizona for the current president and he has 279 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 259.

2. Trump wins a bloodbath | Republicans 313, Democrats 225

Those recent polls showing Trump’s swing-state prowess prove prophetic: the GOP nominee nearly sweeps the Big Seven en route to a resounding victory, 313-225. Biden manages to keep Wisconsin–of all the battlegrounds, the Badger State is where he’s polling best–but it’s far from enough to thwart Trump’s dominant comeback.

3. The neck-and-neckiest outcome | Republicans 272, Democrats 266

Trump wins Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina; Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. It all comes down to Nevada and its eight votes (remember it gained two votes in our new system)–and Trump wins them, giving him a razor-thin Electoral College victory.